DeepCap Tuesday Outlook

Market reacts to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty ahead of key data releases.

DeepCap Tuesday Outlook

The Day at a Glance

🎯 Theme: Market reacts to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty ahead of key data releases.
📊 Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 18.84, +18.79%)
⏰ Key Event: CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions at 3 PM
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Key Headlines

  1. China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged, as expected
    China left benchmark lending rates unchanged despite slower growth, a key policy/rate-path datapoint.
  2. Bank Indonesia to hold rates again as rupiah currency remains weak: Reuters poll
    Central-bank policy decision and currency dynamics in Indonesia underpinning local rate and FX expectations.
  3. The Magnificent Seven Drove Markets. Now They’re Pulling in Different Directions. – WSJ
    Coverage on how the handful of mega-cap tech names that drove recent market gains are now moving differently, raising valuation concerns.

The Day Ahead

Yesterday’s Takeaway
The big move was geopolitics-driven risk aversion: Trump’s Greenland headline and tariff threats sent equities lower and pushed Treasuries into a global selloff, lifting the VIX to 18.84. That combination signals a cautious open today—higher US yields (US 10‑y 4.28) and elevated volatility will keep levered and cyclical positions fragile while FX remains uneven (EUR/USD 1.16).

The Setup
Volatility is the story: VIX hit 18.84 (+18.8% day, +24.6% week) and US 10‑year yields are at their 52‑week high of 4.28 (+1.18% day), while EURIBOR 3M sits elevated at 2.03. German 10‑y at 2.84 is comparatively muted, creating a cross‑asset divergence—global bond volatility outsized in the US versus Europe even as EUR/USD is unchanged. Sector flows from yesterday—ImmunityBio up ~39.8% and space/tech names rallying while energy and utilities lagged—underscore a risk‑off tilt with idiosyncratic pockets of speculative buying.

Today’s Watch
Focus tonight is the CFTC speculative net‑position slate at 20:30 ET (S&P 500 prior -122.1, wheat -86, natural gas -185.6, plus metals and FX positions). Markets expect incremental shifts; material reductions in net shorts on the S&P or a swing in commodity positions would amplify price moves into the close. Also note a Romanian holiday (Unification Day) limiting local flows. Session focus: can US yields stabilize and erase the volatility impulse, or will positioning updates and persistent tariff headlines extend the late‑day rout.

Market Movers

📈 Top Gainers

  • ImmunityBio, Inc. — +39.75%
  • Argan, Inc. — +16.38%
  • Riot Platforms, Inc. — +15.92%
  • AST SpaceMobile, Inc. — +14.34%
  • Figure Technology Solutions, In — +13.86%
  • Firefly Aerospace Inc. — +12.3%
  • IREN LIMITED — +11.43%
  • Super Micro Computer, Inc. — +11.09%

📉 Top Losers

  • Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. — -13.25%
  • Sasol Ltd. — -11.75%
  • Talen Energy Corporation — -11.31%
  • Constellation Energy Corporatio — -9.8%
  • ZoomInfo Technologies Inc. — -9.65%
  • Braze, Inc. — -9.62%
  • Melco Resorts & Entertainment L — -8.92%
  • Regencell Bioscience Holdings L — -8.75%

Key Events Today

Date Region Event Impact
Fri 01/23 CA Retail Sales Ex Autos 🔸 Med
Fri 01/23 CA Retail Sales 🔸 Med
Fri 01/23 CA Retail Sales 🔸 Med
Fri 01/23 CA Retail Sales 🔸 Med
Fri 01/23 CA Retail Sales 🔸 Med
Fri 01/23 CA Retail Sales 🔸 Med
Fri 01/23 US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash 🔸 Med
Fri 01/23 US S&P Global Composite PMI 🔸 Med
Fri 01/23 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash 🔸 Med
Fri 01/23 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 🔸 Med
View Full Calendar

Macro Dashboard

Indicator Level Δ d/d Δ w/w 52W Range Signal
VIX 18.84 +18.79% +24.6% 14.49–18.84 ⚠️ Elevated
EUR/USD 1.16 0.0% — — Neutral
EURIBOR 3M 2.03% 0.0% +0.5% 2.02–2.03 📈 Sticky
US 10Y 4.28% +1.18% +2.39% 4.14–4.28 📈 Bid
DE 10Y 2.84% 0.0% 0.0% 2.81–2.9 Neutral

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📰 Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)

Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages — China keeps lending rates unchanged

China left benchmark lending rates unchanged despite slower growth, a key policy/rate-path datapoint.

Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages — Bank Indonesia decision

Central-bank policy decision and currency dynamics in Indonesia underpinning local rate and FX expectations.

AI/Tech Valuation Jitters — Big-cap divergence

Coverage on how the handful of mega-cap tech names that drove recent market gains are now moving differently, raising valuation concerns.

Trade & Diplomacy — Tariff threats and the Greenland episode

Headlines tying Trump’s Greenland gambit and tariff threats to market volatility across equities, bonds, FX and commodities.

Trade & Diplomacy — Greenland tariff shock

A cluster of headlines linking President Trump’s threatened Greenland-related tariffs to market volatility across regions and assets.

Other Market News

Additional headlines across various market themes.

Market Futures

Social Media Buzz

For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.

This content is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Markets carry risk. Do your own research.

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