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DeepCap Thursday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| 🎯 | Theme: U.S. economic indicators may influence market sentiment amid mixed global signals. |
| 📊 | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 16.75, +4.82%) |
| ⏰ | Key Event: Industrial Production release at 10:30 AM |
| 🔥 | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch → |
Key Headlines
-
Trump’s new push for lower rates
Policy moves and rate developments—from political pressure to central-bank guidance—are driving mortgage and interbank dynamics. -
Bank of Korea signals end to easing cycle after standing pat to safeguard FX stability
Central-bank decisions and shifting mortgage/rates dynamics across the US, UK and Asia are driving market and consumer-level moves. -
Fed’s Beige Book Shows Economy Picking Up, Employment Unchanged
Federal Reserve regional report signals changing economic momentum that can influence the rate path and policy expectations.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
A commodity-led move dominated: precious and critical metals hit new highs, sending miners sharply higher (Critical Metals +32.58%, Uranium Energy +10.55%, Taseko +11.81%) while tech lagged and stocks finished lower. That split—commodity strength with equity dispersion—signals today’s session will trade around whether the metals rally reflects a durable reallocation or a short-term risk repricing, and it ties to interest-rate expectations as miners react to real-rate moves.
The Setup
Risk is mixed: VIX jumped to 16.75 (up 4.82% on the day and at its 52-week high), signalling elevated equity volatility even as EUR/USD sits steady at 1.16. US 10-year yield is 4.15% (up 0.24%), while the German 10-year fell to 2.82% (down 1.05%), widening US–Bund spreads. EURIBOR 3M is 2.02 and flagged “depressed,” reflecting softer short-term euro-area money-market rates. The divergence—rising US yields and sliding Bunds amid higher volatility—creates a fragile cross-asset backdrop where flows into commodity-linked assets and out of rate-sensitive tech can persist or reverse quickly.
Today’s Watch
Key domestic prints are Colombia’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales at 15:00 (IP forecast 0.5% vs prior 1.9%; retail sales previous 10), where a softer read would bolster the commodity/risk-off narrative and could keep yields capped. Bundesbank chief Nagel speaks at 10:00; any hawkish tilt would lift Bunds and compress spreads, pressuring metal-linked trades. Also note late releases of CFTC speculative positions. Focus for the session: US 10y/Bund spread dynamics, Nagel’s tone, and whether miners can extend yesterday’s breakout.
Market Movers
📈 Top Gainers
- Critical Metals Corp. — +32.58%
- Bitdeer Technologies Group — +15.58%
- Edgewise Therapeutics, Inc. — +12.91%
- Intuitive Machines, Inc. — +12.46%
- Viking Therapeutics, Inc. — +11.89%
- Taseko Mines, Ltd. — +11.81%
- Erasca, Inc. — +10.73%
- Uranium Energy Corp. — +10.55%
📉 Top Losers
- Trip.com Group Limited — -17.05%
- Dave Inc. — -12.4%
- Via Transportation, Inc. — -10.49%
- Pearson, Plc — -9.73%
- Navan, Inc. — -9.22%
- Impinj, Inc. — -9.11%
- Lumentum Holdings Inc. — -8.22%
- Hinge Health, Inc. — -8.06%
Key Events Today
No major economic events scheduled.
View Full Calendar
Fed Speak This Week
- January 16 — Fed Bowman Speech (Hawk)
- January 16 — Fed Jefferson Speech (Neutral)
- January 17 — Bundesbank Nagel Speech
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Δ d/d | Δ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.75 | +4.82% | +8.91% | 14.2–16.75 | ⚠️ Elevated |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | 0.0% | — | — | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.02% | 0.0% | -0.49% | 2.02–2.03 | 📉 Easing |
| US 10Y | 4.15% | +0.24% | -0.72% | 4.11–4.2 | Neutral |
| DE 10Y | 2.82% | -1.05% | +0.36% | 2.81–2.9 | 📉 Offered |
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📰 Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Policy moves and rate developments—from political pressure to central-bank guidance—are driving mortgage and interbank dynamics.
- Trump’s new push for lower rates — Axios, 01/14/2026
- BOJ to raise rates again to 1% or higher by end-September, possibly by July: Reuters poll — Reuters, 01/15/2026
- Homeowners and home buyers race to lock in falling mortgage rates — MarketWatch, 01/14/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central-bank decisions and shifting mortgage/rates dynamics across the US, UK and Asia are driving market and consumer-level moves.
- Bank of Korea signals end to easing cycle after standing pat to safeguard FX stability — Reuters, 01/15/2026
- U.S. Economy Best Served by Independent Federal Reserve, Fed’s Kashkari Says — The Wall Street Journal, 01/14/2026
- Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed; Bank of Korea keeps interest rate unchanged — CNBC, 01/14/2026
- US Mortgage Rates Slide to One of the Lowest Levels Since 2022 — Bloomberg.com, 01/14/2026
- Mortgage refinance demand surges 40% higher after Trump post briefly tanks interest rates — CNBC, 01/14/2026
- Bank of England’s Taylor says rates set to fall further as inflation drops — Reuters, 01/14/2026
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Federal Reserve regional report signals changing economic momentum that can influence the rate path and policy expectations.
- Fed’s Beige Book Shows Economy Picking Up, Employment Unchanged — Bloomberg.com, 01/14/2026
AI/Tech Valuation Jitters
AI-related productisation and hype are being flagged as a material risk to credit and asset valuations.
- AI Bonds Could Devour Credit Markets. Let Stock Investors Take the Risk. — Barron’s, 01/15/2026
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Macro indicators and country-level economic profiles shaping growth narratives and policy assessments.
- Fed survey suggests slight upgrade to US economy — Reuters, 01/14/2026
- Welcome to Greenland, an Economy Reliant on Subsidies and Shrimp — The Wall Street Journal, 01/15/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Strong US retail sales in November showcase economy’s resilience — Reuters, 01/14/2026
- The biggest U.S. banks have something shocking to say: The economy is doing just fine — MarketWatch, 01/14/2026
- Global Economy Records Stronger Growth, But Is on Course for a Weak Decade, Says World Bank — The Wall Street Journal, 01/13/2026
- JPMorgan says Trump’s credit card cap would hurt consumers and the economy — Reuters, 01/13/2026
- China Announces Record Trade Surplus as Its Exports Flood World Markets — The New York Times, 01/14/2026
- Scott Bessent warns Korean currency weakness ‘not in line’ with economy — Financial Times, 01/15/2026
- Trump’s heavy hand tightens grip on U.S. economy — Axios, 01/14/2026
- US Stocks Extend Losses as Metals Hit Highs: Markets Wrap — Bloomberg.com, 01/14/2026
- European markets head for higher open as traders track Greenland, Iran news — CNBC, 01/15/2026
- Asian Shares Set for Weaker Open, Crude Oil Falls: Markets Wrap — Bloomberg.com, 01/15/2026
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Denmark sends military reenforcements to Greenland. A vanguard and military material has been sent to Greenland to prepare for eventual larger troop movements. — reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-14
- Daily Discussion Thread for January 14, 2026 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-01-14
- EXCLUSIVE: EU to become ‘military powerhouse,’ von der Leyen told MEPs — reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-01-14
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, January 15, 2026 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-01-14
- Louvre’s higher ticket prices for non-European visitors take effect — reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-14
- Incoming U.S. Ambassador Jokes About Iceland Becoming The 52nd State — reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-14
- Elon Musk’s X stops bikini bot undressing women in photos after Britain threatened to ban the site. — reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-01-14