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DeepCap Thursday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Market reacts to mixed economic signals ahead of CPI release. |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 15.38, +4.27%) |
| β° | Key Event: CPI release at 8:30 AM |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
Mortgage demand drops nearly 10% to end 2025, despite lower interest rates
Mortgage and housing-finance flows reacting to the post-rate environment and borrower demand trends. -
Rates Spark: Choppy Markets Unlikely To Calm
Headlines focused on interest-rate dynamics and mortgage-rate moves that influence markets and housing decisions. -
How tariff disruption will continue reshaping the global economy in 2026
Tariff and geopolitical-risk pieces highlighting trade friction and high-stakes geopolitical scenarios that can reshape global flows.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
Oil-led risk-off dominated markets: headlines about tariffs and political noise coincided with a slide in oil futures and a pullback in equities (FTSE snapped its run; Dow fell). That sent traders into safe havens and lifted volatility, a signal that today’s session will be set by sentiment around energy and geopolitics rather than fresh macro surprises; cross-asset flows should keep linkages tight between energy, cyclicals and sovereign bonds.
The Setup
Volatility is elevated: VIX sits at 15.38 (up 4.3% on the day and at its 52-week high). Long-end yields easedβUS 10y 4.14 (-0.48%) and German 10y 2.81 (-1.4%)βwhile EUR/USD is flat at 1.17 and EURIBOR 3M remains elevated at 2.03. The key divergence: equity weakness and higher volatility have coincided with falling government yields, pointing to risk-off positioning into perceived safe assets rather than a hawkish repricing. That mix makes asset correlations fragile into any fresh commodity or positioning data.
Today’s Watch
The market gets a run of CFTC speculative net-position releases at 20:30 ET (crude prev. 64.6; gold 231.2; EUR 157.5; GBP -33.2; MXN 106.4; JPY 14.1; NZD -43.3; aluminium -2.4; corn 53.2). Earlier, Rwanda posts Dec CPI at 12:00 (prev. 7.2). Traders expect the CFTC prints to be status quo; a material unwinding or accumulation in crude/gold positions would amplify moves already visible in energy and rates. Focus the session on whether positioning prints reinforce yesterdayβs energy-driven unwind and whether VIX and US yields confirm continued risk-off.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Regencell Bioscience Holdings L β +60.1%
- Revolution Medicines, Inc. β +28.63%
- Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. β +16.08%
- Silicon Motion Technology Corpo β +15.13%
- International Seaways, Inc. β +11.66%
- Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. β +10.65%
- Teekay Tankers Ltd. β +10.34%
- United Microelectronics Corpora β +9.98%
π Top Losers
- ViaSat, Inc. β -13.21%
- Ambarella, Inc. β -12.52%
- AST SpaceMobile, Inc. β -12.13%
- Opendoor Technologies Inc β -11.69%
- Super Group (SGHC) Limited β -10.34%
- First Solar, Inc. β -10.29%
- Fermi Inc. β -10.11%
- Skyworks Solutions, Inc. β -9.73%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 01/09 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls Private | π΄ High |
| Fri 01/09 | US | Unemployment Rate | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/09 | US | U-6 Unemployment Rate | πΈ Med |
View Full Calendar
Fed Speak This Week
- January 9 β Fed Kashkari Speech (Hawk)
- January 9 β Fed Barkin Speech (Neutral)
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.38 | +4.27% | +2.88% | 13.47β15.38 | β οΈ Elevated |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.03% | 0.0% | +0.5% | 2.02β2.03 | π Sticky |
| US 10Y | 4.14% | -0.48% | -0.72% | 4.11β4.2 | Neutral |
| DE 10Y | 2.81% | -1.4% | -1.75% | 2.81β2.9 | π Offered |
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π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Mortgage and housing-finance flows reacting to the post-rate environment and borrower demand trends.
- Mortgage demand drops nearly 10% to end 2025, despite lower interest rates β CNBC, 01/07/2026
Rates, central banks & mortgages
Headlines focused on interest-rate dynamics and mortgage-rate moves that influence markets and housing decisions.
- Rates Spark: Choppy Markets Unlikely To Calm β Seeking Alpha, 01/08/2026
- US Mortgage Rates Fall to 6.25%, Lowest Since September 2024 β Bloomberg.com, 01/07/2026
Trade & Diplomacy
Tariff and geopolitical-risk pieces highlighting trade friction and high-stakes geopolitical scenarios that can reshape global flows.
- How tariff disruption will continue reshaping the global economy in 2026 β BBC, 01/08/2026
- Prediction markets show rising odds Trump seizes Panama Canal, moves on Greenland β CNBC, 01/06/2026
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Labor-market and growth reads showing uneven momentum across major economies and regions.
- Help wanted? Not really. U.S. economy is barely adding workers. β MarketWatch, 01/07/2026
- India economy estimated to grow 7.4% in 2026 despite looming trade uncertainties β CNBC, 01/07/2026
Macro: labor, consumers & growth
Economic-readout and big-picture commentary on growth, risks and structural change shaping the global and regional economy.
- Euro zone economy ends 2025 on benign note even as risks linger β Reuters, 01/07/2026
- Donβt be fooled β everything has changed for the global economy β Financial Times, 01/07/2026
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as Trump rattles defense firms and oil prices slide β CNBC, 01/08/2026
- Stock Market News, Jan. 7, 2026: Dow Falls Nearly 1%; Oil Futures Decline β The Wall Street Journal, 01/08/2026
- Asian Stocks Set to Fall as 2026 Momentum Fades: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 01/08/2026
- European markets set to open lower as geopolitical tensions linger β CNBC, 01/08/2026
- Stocks Head for First 2026 Drop on Rising Risks: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 01/07/2026
- FTSE 100 Snaps Winning Run as Oil Firms Fall β Bloomberg.com, 01/07/2026
- Opinion | Trump Is About to Lose Control of the Economy β The New York Times, 01/07/2026
- Donald Trump Is Meddling in Markets. Itβs a Dangerous Line to Cross. β Barron’s, 01/07/2026
- Chinese EV Maker NIO Will Enter Australia and New Zealand Markets This Year β The Wall Street Journal, 01/08/2026
- Polymarket, Dow Jones Partner to Display Prediction-Markets Data in Dow Jones Content β The Wall Street Journal, 01/07/2026
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- 43 Million Tons: Germany Confirms One of the World’s Largest Lithium Deposits in Former Gas Field β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-07
- Non-EU migration to Britain exploded after Brexit β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2026-01-07
- Daily Discussion Thread for January 07, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-01-07
- Estonian Wikipedia volunteers find it difficult to protect Wikipedia from Russian propaganda – The English-language Wikipedia is making Estonian history more Soviet-friendly. β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-07
- At a chaotic Teams meeting, a rift arose between Nuuk and Copenhagen: The Greenlanders were furious, the Danes were shaken β reddit.com/r/europe, 2026-01-07
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, January 08, 2026 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-01-07
- Trump says he will not permit dividends and stock buybacks for defense companies β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2026-01-07