DeepCap Tuesday Outlook

Market reacts to inflation data as Fed officials signal cautious approach on rates.

DeepCap Tuesday Outlook

The Day at a Glance

🎯 Theme: Market reacts to inflation data as Fed officials signal cautious approach on rates.
πŸ“Š Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 14.9, +2.69%)
⏰ Key Event: CPI release at 8:30 AM
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Key Headlines

  1. Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari indicates interest rates don’t need to be cut much more
    Policy signals from central bankers that influence the rate path and market expectations.
  2. Rates Spark: Yeah, SNAFU Is About Right
    Headlines focused on interest-rate dynamics and housing/mortgage impacts as rates move into 2026.
  3. Hungary’s Orban says US intervention in Venezuela good for energy markets
    Political and diplomatic comments touching on foreign intervention and energy-market implications.

The Day Ahead

Yesterday’s Takeaway
Geopolitical action in Venezuela and a US strike lifted crude and skewed flows into energy and defense stocks, enough to push the Dow sharply higher despite mixed signals on policy from Fed officials. That split matters for today: risk appetite can support cyclicals and defense names, but any follow-up hawkish Fed comments will hand the edge back to bonds and the dollar.

The Setup
Risk is bifurcated: equities bought the geopolitical risk premium while US 10‑year yields ticked higher to 4.19% (up 0.48%) and remain near their 52‑week range, VIX sits low at 14.9 but has risen 2.7% on the day. EUR/USD is steady at 1.17 and EURIBOR 3M sits at 2.03; Germany’s 10‑year is 2.87% and off slightly. Watch the divergence between higher yields and an equity rally β€” that combination raises the probability of sharp intra‑day moves if either risk or policy narratives shift.

Today’s Watch
Data and Fed speak line up: University of Michigan reads at 15:00 (consumer sentiment 53.2 f/52.9 prev; 5‑yr inflation expectations 3.1 f/3.2 prev; current conditions 50.5 f/50.4 prev) coincide with a Kashkari appearance; Baker Hughes rig count posts at 18:00 and Fed’s Barkin speaks at 18:35. Markets expect a small uptick in sentiment and a modest decline in 5‑yr inflation expectations; surprises on either front β€” stickier inflation expectations or hawkish Fed tone β€” would push yields and dollar higher and pressure cyclicals. Focus the session on moves in US real rates, oil/energy stocks after yesterday’s geopolitical shock, and any hawkish nuance from Fed speakers.

Market Movers

πŸ“ˆ Top Gainers

  • Regencell Bioscience Holdings L β€” +31.65%
  • Figure Technology Solutions, In β€” +21.67%
  • QXO, Inc. β€” +18.15%
  • AeroVironment, Inc. β€” +16.09%
  • Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat β€” +15.37%
  • NuScale Power Corporation β€” +15.14%
  • Oklo Inc. β€” +14.83%
  • Vicor Corporation β€” +14.36%

πŸ“‰ Top Losers

  • Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. β€” -11.64%
  • SiTime Corporation β€” -9.98%
  • Viking Therapeutics, Inc. β€” -9.26%
  • Gulfport Energy Corporation β€” -8.88%
  • Corcept Therapeutics Incorporat β€” -8.51%
  • BellRing Brands, Inc. β€” -8.43%
  • Abivax SA β€” -7.88%
  • Structure Therapeutics Inc. β€” -7.85%

Key Events Today

Date Region Event Impact
Fri 01/09 US Nonfarm Payrolls Private πŸ”΄ High
Fri 01/09 US U-6 Unemployment Rate πŸ”Έ Med
Fri 01/09 US Unemployment Rate πŸ”Έ Med
Fri 01/09 CA Unemployment Rate πŸ”Έ Med
View Full Calendar

Fed Speak This Week

  • January 9 β€” ECB Lane Speech
  • January 9 β€” Fed Kashkari Speech (Hawk)
  • January 9 β€” Fed Barkin Speech (Neutral)

Macro Dashboard

Indicator Level Ξ” d/d Ξ” w/w 52W Range Signal
VIX 14.9 +2.69% +4.93% 13.47–16.87 Neutral
EUR/USD 1.17 0.0% β€” β€” Neutral
EURIBOR 3M 2.03% 0.0% +0.5% 2.0–2.04 Neutral
US 10Y 4.19% +0.48% +1.45% 4.11–4.2 πŸ“ˆ Bid
DE 10Y 2.87% -1.03% +1.41% 2.83–2.9 Neutral

πŸ” Today’s DeepList Spotlight

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πŸ“° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)

Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages

Policy signals from central bankers that influence the rate path and market expectations.

Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages

Headlines focused on interest-rate dynamics and housing/mortgage impacts as rates move into 2026.

Trade & Diplomacy

Political and diplomatic comments touching on foreign intervention and energy-market implications.

Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth

Broader macro data and growth signals shaping economic momentum.

Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth

Consumer spending and demand trends that speak to economic health and distributional dynamics.

Other Market News

Additional headlines across various market themes.

Market Futures

Social Media Buzz

For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.

This content is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Markets carry risk. Do your own research.

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