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DeepCap Tuesday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Market sentiment shifts as tax changes and economic events loom. |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 14.2, +4.41%) |
| β° | Key Event: Tax Revenue release today |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
Yen strengthens after BOJ minutes, markets gauge intervention odds
Central-bank guidance and policy minutes driving FX and market focus across regions. -
Charts of the year: Trumpβs attempt to reshape world trade
Stories about geopolitics and efforts to reshape trade and their economic implications. -
Tariffs, China, and the dollar: What Wall Street got wrong in 2025
Trade friction, tariffs and China-dollar dynamics that reshaped market views in 2025.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
Tech-led weakness punctuated the session and spilled into commodities: US equities slipped as silver and gold sold off, sending miners sharply lower and amplifying a risk-off tone into Asia. That combination signals a cautious open today, with commodity-linked equities and rates-sensitive sectors vulnerable to further follow-through.
The Setup
Volatility is higher but muted β VIX 14.2 (+4.4%) β suggesting guarded positioning rather than panic. US 10-year yields ticked up to 4.12 (+0.24%) while Germanyβs 10-year fell to 2.83 (-1.05%), a cross-market divergence that highlights regional flow differences. EUR/USD sits at 1.18 unchanged and EURIBOR 3M is 2.02, near its recent range. Liquidity is thin: Japan, Russia and other markets are on holiday, so price moves may exaggerate. Miners plunged as much as ~9.6% (Sibanye) yesterday, pairing with the metals slump to make commodity names a barometer for risk appetite.
Today’s Watch
Key prints: UY inflation at 17:00 (forecast 3.9, prior 4.09), Baker Hughes rig count at 18:00, Fed balance sheet at 21:30 (previous 6.56) and Australia services PMIs at 23:00 (previous ~51). Markets will parse Uruguayβs CPI for regional inflation momentum; a surprise higher print would pressure LatAm assets. The Fed balance sheet release and rig count will be read through a liquidity-and-supply lens rather than policy shifts. Focus the session on whether US yields and precious metals extend yesterdayβs move amid thin holiday liquidity β that will set cross-asset direction into the next full week.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc β +13.25%
- Regencell Bioscience Holdings L β +10.96%
- DigitalBridge Group, Inc. β +9.63%
- Belite Bio, Inc β +6.69%
- Polestar Automotive Holding UK β +6.39%
- Navan, Inc. β +6.25%
- NIO Inc. β +4.71%
- Pattern Group Inc. – Series A β +4.56%
π Top Losers
- D/B/A Sibanye-Stillwater Limite β -9.55%
- BellRing Brands, Inc. β -9.38%
- Trump Media & Technology Group β -9.11%
- DRDGOLD Limited β -8.37%
- Harmony Gold Mining Company Lim β -8.23%
- Aura Minerals Inc. β -8.14%
- Zenas BioPharma, Inc. β -8.1%
- Allied Gold Corporation β -7.87%
Key Events Today
| Date | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 01/02 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls Private | π΄ High |
| Fri 01/02 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | Unemployment Rate | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | CA | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | πΈ Med |
| Fri 01/02 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | πΈ Med |
View Full Calendar
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.2 | +4.41% | +0.85% | 13.47β17.62 | π Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.02% | 0.0% | -1.94% | 2.0β2.1 | Neutral |
| US 10Y | 4.12% | +0.24% | -1.2% | 4.11β4.18 | π Offered |
| DE 10Y | 2.83% | -1.05% | -2.41% | 2.83β2.9 | π Offered |
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π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central-bank guidance and policy minutes driving FX and market focus across regions.
- Yen strengthens after BOJ minutes, markets gauge intervention odds β Reuters, 12/29/2025
- Asia markets mixed as tech weakness persists with Fed minutes and jobless claims in focus β Seeking Alpha, 12/30/2025
Trade & Diplomacy
Stories about geopolitics and efforts to reshape trade and their economic implications.
- Charts of the year: Trumpβs attempt to reshape world trade β Financial Times, 12/30/2025
- Russia is blasting Odessa to throttle Ukraineβs economy β The Economist, 12/28/2025
Trade & Diplomacy
Trade friction, tariffs and China-dollar dynamics that reshaped market views in 2025.
- Tariffs, China, and the dollar: What Wall Street got wrong in 2025 β Reuters, 12/30/2025
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Macro outlook pieces focused on US tax changes and country-level economic stress and growth risks.
- Tax changes loom large for US economy in 2026 β Reuters, 12/29/2025
- US economy to ride tax cut tailwind but faces risks β Reuters, 12/29/2025
- Iranβs currency βturns to ashβ as economy spirals β Financial Times, 12/29/2025
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Top-line growth and macro momentum stories showing economic direction.
- US economy grows at fastest pace in two years β BBC, 12/23/2025
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- PBOCβs Leanest Year for Easing Since 2021 Defies Wall Street β Bloomberg.com, 12/30/2025
- Asian Stocks Poised for Weak Start After US Losses: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 12/30/2025
- European markets set to open flat to higher as 2025 draws to a close β CNBC, 12/30/2025
- Stock Market News, Dec. 29, 2025: Gold and Silver Skid; Dow Closes Lower β The Wall Street Journal, 12/30/2025
- Tech Weighs on US Stocks as Silver Turns Volatile: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 12/29/2025
- Asia-Pacific markets mostly fall on penultimate day of the year β CNBC, 12/29/2025
- 2025 Was Just a Bizarre Year in Markets β Bloomberg.com, 12/29/2025
- In a Wild Year for Markets, Investors Who Did Nothing Did Just Fine β The Wall Street Journal, 12/28/2025
- S&P 500 closes lower Monday as investors sell tech names into year-end: Live updates β CNBC, 12/29/2025
- From Silver Frenzy to Sector Trends: What Markets Are Really Saying β Investing.com, 12/30/2025
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- White House demands British supermarkets stock chlorinated chicken. White House pushing Sir Keir Starmer to make concessions on food standards β reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-29
- Daily Discussion Thread for December 29, 2025 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-29
- Russia issues arrest warrant for Garry Kasparov on terrorism charges in absentia, accusing him of promoting terrorist content online. β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2025-12-29
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, December 30, 2025 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-29
- Why havenβt Trumpβs tariffs crashed the US economy? β reddit.com/r/Economics, 2025-12-29
- Most Europeans think state pensions will become unaffordable, polling shows β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2025-12-29
- Turned a breakup into a gold trade β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-29
- Lavrov Says a Drone Attack on Putinβs Residence Was Thwarted and Warns of Retaliation. Zelensky Rejects the Accusations and Calls Them a Pretext for Escalation and Political Pressure β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2025-12-29