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DeepCap Wednesday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: U.S. economy’s strong growth challenges interest rate expectations. |
| π | Risk Mood: Constructive (VIX 14.0, -0.57%) |
| β° | Key Event: BoJ Summary of Opinions at 12:00 PM |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
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Fed chair candidate Hassett says U.S. is way behind the curve on lowering interest rates
Central-bank commentary and candidate/official views that speak to the policy and rate path in major economies. -
Opinion: Why Jerome Powell was right all along about interest rates, inflation and the economy
Central-bank minutes and commentary on interest-rate decisions and policy rationale dominate this set. -
Fed Should Lower Rates If the Market Does Well, Trump Says
Headlines focused on central-bank decisions and political commentary on rate policy that could shape global yields and markets.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
The U.S. GDP shock β a 4.3% third-quarter print β dominated the tinvestor and keeps the macro bias tilted toward growth-sensitive assets and a firmer dollar into today’s session. That strength signals stickier rate expectations even as front-end spreads show little immediate repricing: expect risk assets to price a higher neutral-rate backdrop and for currencies and sovereign curves to react unevenly.
The Setup
Risk is muted but directional: VIX sits at 14.0, signaling subdued volatility, while the 10-year Treasury yields trade at 4.16% and Germanyβs 10-year at 2.86% β both essentially neutral. Short-term euro-area rates (EURIBOR 3M) have dropped to 2.0, highlighting a divergence between money-market easing and resilient real activity. The split β strong growth data alongside calm volatility and only modest moves in yields β leaves markets sensitive to any fresh signalling from central banks or surprise macro prints.
Today’s Watch
Key items: China industrial profits (01:30 GMT β consensus 2.2% vs prior 1.9%), BoJ Summary of Opinions (23:50 JP) and a suite of CFTC speculative-position releases (20:30). Markets expect steady improvement in Chinaβs profit flow; upside would reinforce commodity and EM sentiment, downside would blunt it. The BoJ text could harden rate expectations after yesterdayβs hawkish hints and prompt JPY and JGB repricing. Focus the session on dollar/JPY and U.S.-Japan yield differentials, China demand signals, and whether Treasury yields begin to reflect the GDP surprise more fully.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Polestar Automotive Holding UK β +20.75%
- Regencell Bioscience Holdings L β +14.31%
- Structure Therapeutics Inc. β +12.71%
- Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat β +10.69%
- Lionsgate Studios Corp β +7.42%
- Novo Nordisk A/S β +7.3%
- Polestar Automotive Holding UK β +7.08%
- Venture Global, Inc. β +6.35%
π Top Losers
- BillionToOne, Inc. β -9.57%
- D-Wave Quantum Inc. β -9.54%
- Firefly Aerospace Inc. β -7.48%
- Moderna, Inc. β -7.48%
- Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. β -7.21%
- Fermi Inc. β -7.09%
- Andersen Group Inc. β -6.89%
- Rigetti Computing, Inc. β -6.67%
Key Events Today
No major economic events scheduled.
View Full Calendar
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.0 | -0.57% | -15.05% | 14.0β17.62 | π Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.0% | -1.96% | -3.85% | 2.0β2.1 | π Easing |
| US 10Y | 4.16% | -0.24% | 0.0% | 4.12β4.19 | Neutral |
| DE 10Y | 2.86% | -1.38% | +0.35% | 2.8β2.9 | Neutral |
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π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central-bank commentary and candidate/official views that speak to the policy and rate path in major economies.
- Fed chair candidate Hassett says U.S. is way behind the curve on lowering interest rates β CNBC, 12/23/2025
- BOJ’s hawkish wink suggests next hike may be sooner than markets think β Reuters, 12/23/2025
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Central-bank minutes and commentary on interest-rate decisions and policy rationale dominate this set.
- Opinion: Why Jerome Powell was right all along about interest rates, inflation and the economy β MarketWatch, 12/23/2025
- Bank of Canada Officials Unsure on Future Direction of Rates, Minutes Say β The Wall Street Journal, 12/23/2025
- BOJ debated need to keep raising rates, October meeting minutes show β Reuters, 12/24/2025
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Headlines focused on central-bank decisions and political commentary on rate policy that could shape global yields and markets.
- Fed Should Lower Rates If the Market Does Well, Trump Says β Bloomberg.com, 12/23/2025
- The Bank of Japan Raised Rates. Hereβs Why You Should Care. β The Wall Street Journal, 12/19/2025
Trade & Diplomacy
Items on cross-border trade flows and export relationships that affect regional trade balances and supply chains.
- Spain set to re-enter Germany’s top 10 export markets as shipments jump β Reuters, 12/23/2025
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
A cluster of national GDP reports and consumer-driven growth data showing stronger-than-expected expansions and regional macro divergence.
- U.S. economy grows by 4.3% in third quarter, much more than expected, delayed report shows β CNBC, 12/23/2025
- Canadian economy posts big October drop, partial recovery seen in November β Reuters, 12/23/2025
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- U.S. GDP Grew 4.3%, Surging in Third Quarter of 2025 β The New York Times, 12/23/2025
- The Economy Survived 2025, But Many Americans Are Reeling β The New York Times, 12/22/2025
- Opinion | 3 Theories for Why G.D.P. Is Up but Job Growth Is Slowing β The New York Times, 12/23/2025
- Americans say the economy is lousy, but their spending habits say the economy is pretty good. Whatβs going on? β MarketWatch, 12/23/2025
- Russiaβs wage growth slows as wartime economy cools β Financial Times, 12/23/2025
- Canada Economy Grew Slightly in November Following October Dip β Bloomberg.com, 12/23/2025
- Narendra Modi turns his focus to reforming Indiaβs economy β Financial Times, 12/23/2025
- Chinaβs Sprint for Tech Dominance Canβt Hide an Economy Full of Holes β The Wall Street Journal, 12/23/2025
- Stocks Hold Gains Ahead of Last Major Data of 2025: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 12/23/2025
- Asian Stocks to Gain After Tech Boosts Wall Street: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 12/24/2025
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Heritage Foundation openly calls for the end of the European Union β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2025-12-23
- Germanyβs far-right AfD accused of gathering information for the Kremlin β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2025-12-23
- Daily Discussion Thread for December 23, 2025 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-23
- Greta Thunberg arrested under Terrorism Act for Palestine Action sign β reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-23
- No Better Feeling β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-23
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, December 24, 2025 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-23
- Japan has agreed to join Horizon Europe, becoming the biggest country yet to associate to the EU’s β¬93.5 billion research and innovation programme. β reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-23
- US economic growth accelerates in third quarter (+4,3%) β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-23