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DeepCap Tuesday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| 🎯 | Theme: Market sentiment improves as VIX declines, signaling cautious optimism. |
| 📊 | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 14.08, -5.57%) |
| ⏰ | Key Event: BoJ Summary of Opinions at 12:00 JST |
| 🔥 | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch → |
Key Headlines
-
BOJ to raise interest rates to 1.5% under Ueda, ex-c.bank policymaker says
Policy-rate commentary and central-bank rate signals from the BOJ and China’s lending-rate decisions. -
Exclusive | Fed’s Hammack Is Inflation-Wary and Prefers Holding Rates Steady Into the Spring
Policy comments from Fed officials and coverage of mortgage-market dynamics driving housing and rate-sensitive asset decisions. -
The Economy Survived 2025, But Many Americans Are Reeling
Headlines focused on broad economic performance, growth dynamics and labour/household strain across major economies.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
A former BOJ policymaker’s public call for a 1.5% rate under Ueda dominated headlines and set the tone: the market is re-pricing the end of ultra-dovish Japan. That shifts the cross-asset map into a more multi-directional regime — weaker safe-haven tailwinds for JPY, higher yields priced into Asia risk, and a conditional boost to cyclicals that fed the AI-led lift in US equities overnight.
The Setup
Risk appetite looks steady. VIX slipped to 14.08 (-5.6%), signaling subdued volatility, while EUR/USD firmed to 1.18 (+0.85%). Sovereign yields tell a mixed story: US 10‑year sits at 4.16 (unchanged) and German 10‑year is elevated at 2.90, keeping core yields relatively high. Short rates in Europe are depressed — Euribor 3M at 2.0 (-1.96%) — a divergence that could amplify FX moves if central-bank narratives diverge further.
Today’s Watch
Key reads: China’s Industrial Profits at 01:30 (forecast 2.2% vs 1.9% prior) and the start of the National People’s Congress (timing noted), the BoJ Summary of Opinions at 23:50 JST, and a bundle of CFTC speculative net-position releases at 20:30 US time (Nasdaq 100, gold, soy, corn, FX). Markets expect modest improvement in Chinese industrial profits; a firmer BoJ summary than consensus would force faster JPY repricing and ripple into EM Asian assets. Watch CFTC flows for signs of crowded long tech or commodity bets. Focus: whether policy signals from Tokyo and Beijing validate yesterday’s repricing or provoke a fresh rotation in rates, FX and tech.
Market Movers
📈 Top Gainers
- Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. — +24.82%
- Abivax SA — +20.69%
- D-Wave Quantum Inc. — +20.02%
- Zenas BioPharma, Inc. — +17.1%
- Unifirst Corporation — +16.15%
- Firefly Aerospace Inc. — +16.02%
- Hut 8 Corp. — +14.21%
- AST SpaceMobile, Inc. — +14.03%
📉 Top Losers
- AXIA Energia — -23.71%
- AXIA Energia — -22.5%
- Edgewise Therapeutics, Inc. — -18.04%
- Trump Media & Technology Group — -13.08%
- Trump Media & Technology Group — -10.44%
- Dillard’s, Inc. — -7.68%
- BillionToOne, Inc. — -6.15%
- Kohl’s Corporation — -5.86%
Key Events Today
No major economic events scheduled.
View Full Calendar
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Δ d/d | Δ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.08 | -5.57% | -14.67% | 14.08–17.62 | 📉 Subdued |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | +0.85% | — | — | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.0% | -1.96% | -3.85% | 2.0–2.1 | 📉 Easing |
| US 10Y | 4.16% | 0.0% | +0.48% | 4.1–4.19 | Neutral |
| DE 10Y | 2.9% | 0.0% | +1.4% | 2.78–2.9 | 📈 Bid |
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📰 Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Policy-rate commentary and central-bank rate signals from the BOJ and China’s lending-rate decisions.
- BOJ to raise interest rates to 1.5% under Ueda, ex-c.bank policymaker says — Reuters, 12/22/2025
- China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged for seventh straight month — Reuters, 12/22/2025
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Policy comments from Fed officials and coverage of mortgage-market dynamics driving housing and rate-sensitive asset decisions.
- Exclusive | Fed’s Hammack Is Inflation-Wary and Prefers Holding Rates Steady Into the Spring — The Wall Street Journal, 12/21/2025
- Mortgage Rates Are Falling but Owners Still Won’t Sell — The Wall Street Journal, 12/21/2025
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Headlines focused on broad economic performance, growth dynamics and labour/household strain across major economies.
- The Economy Survived 2025, But Many Americans Are Reeling — The New York Times, 12/23/2025
- FTSE 100 Live: UK Economic Growth Slowed in Third Quarter — Bloomberg.com, 12/23/2025
- Russia’s wage growth slows as wartime economy cools — Financial Times, 12/23/2025
- GDP looks strong despite a turbulent year. Can the U.S. economy keep it up? — MarketWatch, 12/22/2025
- ‘No doubt’ U.S. economy is slowing, Invesco says, tipping Europe to outperform — CNBC, 12/22/2025
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Consumer- and fiscal-driven pressures shaping growth and household finances in major economies.
- UK consumers feel the pinch from tax increases as economy slows — Reuters, 12/22/2025
China/Asia Policy & Markets
Regional economic normalization and confidence signals from Asia that could affect regional markets and flows.
- Japan’s economy is normalizing, says Neuberger’s Okamura — CNBC, 12/22/2025
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Markets in 2025: Gold, goldilocks and the dollar bears — Reuters, 12/23/2025
- Bond Markets Clear Path for Stock Rally by Ignoring a Near-Term Risk — Barron’s, 12/22/2025
- Asia-Pacific markets mostly climb after AI trade lifts Wall Street overnight — CNBC, 12/22/2025
- Stock Rally Keeps Going, Yen Extends Rebound: Markets Wrap — Bloomberg.com, 12/23/2025
- Stocks Climb With Commodities as Gold Hits Record: Markets Wrap — Bloomberg.com, 12/22/2025
- Stock Market Today: Dow Up 250 Points; Gold, Silver Prices Rally — Live Updates — The Wall Street Journal, 12/23/2025
- FanDuel Launches Latest Prediction Markets App, Chasing Rivals — Bloomberg.com, 12/22/2025
- FDRR: Okay To Hold Even If You Think Rates Move Lower In 2026 (NYSEARCA:FDRR) — Seeking Alpha, 12/23/2025
- FanDuel, CME Group launch prediction markets in five US states — Reuters, 12/22/2025
- Jim Beam Halts Production at Flagship Distillery as Whiskey and Bourbon Markets Struggle — The New York Times, 12/22/2025
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Trump names Louisiana governor as Greenland special envoy, prompting Danish alarm — reddit.com/r/Europe, 2025-12-22
- Russian general killed by car bomb in Moscow, officials say — reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-22
- Daily Discussion Thread for December 22, 2025 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-22
- Russia ‘ready to legally confirm it has no intention of attacking EU or Nato’ – as it happened — reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-22
- US is ‘demolishing its scientific leadership with a wrecking ball,’ says chief EU research diplomat — reddit.com/r/Europe, 2025-12-22
- “Where’s the $2,000?” Trump Official Confronted on TV Over Missing Stimulus Checks — reddit.com/r/Economics, 2025-12-22
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, December 23, 2025 — reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-22
- Sovereignty of Kingdom of Denmark must be preserved, EU spokesperson says — reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-22