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DeepCap Thursday Outlook
The Day at a Glance
| π― | Theme: Market reacts to central banks’ contrasting rate decisions amid economic uncertainty. |
| π | Risk Mood: Cautious (VIX 17.34, -1.59%) |
| β° | Key Event: Interest Rate Decision at 2:00 PM |
| π₯ | DeepCap Focus: [Premium] See DeepList Watch β |
Key Headlines
-
BoE cuts rates by quarter point to 3.75%
Multiple central-bank policy moves and commentary β BoE cuts, BOJ hawkish tilt, ECB hold and US Fed commentary β are driving market direction and FX/rates flows. -
Bank of England Expects Weaker Inflation as Rates Cut to 3.75%
Policy moves, central-bank commentary and interest-rate transmission are driving deposit, mortgage and sovereign-rate dynamics. -
What Happened to the American Dream? Will It Ever Come Back?
Broader socio-economic analysis of long-term U.S. economic and social mobility trends that inform structural consumer and labor dynamics.
The Day Ahead
Yesterday’s Takeaway
The Bank of England’s quarter-point cut to 3.75% was the standout move, breaking the recent central-bank divergence and compressing UK yields. That policy action, alongside reports that the BoJ is set to raise policy rates and the ECB holding steady, signals renewed cross-border rate dispersion that should keep FX and global rate differentials volatile into today’s session.
The Setup
Risk sentiment is mixed: the VIX eased 1.6% to 17.34 but remains elevated versus recent lows (week change +16.77%), US 10-year yields slipped to 4.14 (-0.48%) and German 10-year yields fell to 2.86 (-0.35%) even as EURIBOR 3M sits near 2.06. EUR/USD is steady at 1.17. The divergence β lower gilts after the BoE cut versus creeping BoJ tightening β creates scope for one-way flow into currencies and duration trades; watch relative moves between UK and German yields for signs of spillover.
Today’s Watch
Key data: China Loan Prime Rates at 01:15 (1Y forecast 3.0, 5Y 3.5) and a later Prime Rate announcement at 13:15; CFTC speculative position releases across major FX and commodities at 20:30. Markets expect the LPRs unchanged; a surprise tweak or signaling from Beijing would shift EM and commodity flows. Focus the session on UK gilt yield action and dollar response to the policy divergence, and on whether China rate guidance alters risk-heavy sectors that drove yesterday’s rotation.
Market Movers
π Top Gainers
- Toro Company (The) β +10.71%
- Hut 8 Corp. β +8.98%
- Texas Pacific Land Corporation β +7.59%
- Civitas Resources, Inc. β +6.38%
- SM Energy Company β +6.24%
- Alpha Metallurgical Resources, β +6.21%
- Via Transportation, Inc. β +6.06%
- Two Harbors Investments Corp 8. β +5.52%
π Top Losers
- Fluence Energy, Inc. β -12.86%
- Bloom Energy Corporation β -12.14%
- Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. β -11.14%
- IES Holdings, Inc. β -10.96%
- TeraWulf Inc. β -10.93%
- Symbotic Inc. β -10.69%
- Globalstar, Inc. β -10.66%
- GE Vernova Inc. β -10.5%
Key Events Today
No major economic events scheduled.
View Full Calendar
Fed Speak This Week
- December 19 β ECB Lane Speech
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | Ξ d/d | Ξ w/w | 52W Range | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.34 | -1.59% | +16.77% | 14.85β17.62 | β οΈ Elevated |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | 0.0% | β | β | Neutral |
| EURIBOR 3M | 2.06% | -0.48% | -1.44% | 2.03β2.1 | Neutral |
| US 10Y | 4.14% | -0.48% | -0.48% | 4.07β4.19 | Neutral |
| DE 10Y | 2.86% | -0.35% | +0.35% | 2.75β2.87 | π Bid |
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π° Yesterday’s Headlines (6 themes)
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Multiple central-bank policy moves and commentary β BoE cuts, BOJ hawkish tilt, ECB hold and US Fed commentary β are driving market direction and FX/rates flows.
- BoE cuts rates by quarter point to 3.75% β Financial Times, 12/18/2025
- Bank of Japan is poised to raise rates to a 30-year high despite economic weakness β CNBC, 12/18/2025
- ECB to hold rates steady as euro zone economy shows resilience β Reuters, 12/18/2025
- Dollar remains firm as markets await ECB, BoE rate announcements β Reuters, 12/18/2025
- Trump says next Fed chair will believe in lower interest rates ‘by a lot’ β Reuters, 12/18/2025
- Bank of England expected to cut interest rates β BBC, 12/18/2025
Rates, Central Banks & Mortgages
Policy moves, central-bank commentary and interest-rate transmission are driving deposit, mortgage and sovereign-rate dynamics.
- Bank of England Expects Weaker Inflation as Rates Cut to 3.75% β Bloomberg.com, 12/18/2025
- Sweden and Norway Hold Rates as Their Economic Prospects Diverge β Bloomberg.com, 12/18/2025
- Mortgage rates move higher after the Fed rate cut, causing loan demand to drop β CNBC, 12/17/2025
- Transcript: Indiaβs central bank governor cheers βgoldilocksβ economy β Financial Times, 12/18/2025
- Todayβs CD Rates for December 18, 2025: Highest APYs Range From 4.11% to 4.78% β The Wall Street Journal, 12/18/2025
Macro: Labor, Consumers & Growth
Broader socio-economic analysis of long-term U.S. economic and social mobility trends that inform structural consumer and labor dynamics.
- What Happened to the American Dream? Will It Ever Come Back? β The New York Times, 12/17/2025
Market Moves & Daily Wraps
Equity-market session wraps showing sector rotation and regional market tracking amid shifting sentiment.
- Tech Stocks Fuel Rebound as Micron Jumps 10%: Markets Wrap β Bloomberg.com, 12/18/2025
- Asia-Pacific markets track Wall Street declines as rotation out of tech continues β CNBC, 12/17/2025
Elections & Economic Perception
Political speeches and commentary are shaping public perceptions of the economy ahead of/around the campaign cycle.
- Trump gives a partisan prime-time address insisting the economy is stronger than many voters feel β AP News, 12/18/2025
- Remixing Trumpβs Economy Speech, Vance Strikes a Different Tone β The New York Times, 12/16/2025
- The economy is fine and everyone hates it β Financial Times, 12/17/2025
Other Market News
Additional headlines across various market themes.
- Trump defends economy, CPI report returns, monster Medline IPO, and more in Morning Squawk β CNBC, 12/18/2025
- FTSE 100 closes higher, leading European markets as UK inflation rate cools β CNBC, 12/17/2025
- Coinbase adds prediction markets and stock trading in push to be one-stop trading app β CNBC, 12/17/2025
- Prediction markets could hit a trillion dollars in trading volume by the end of this decade, new report says β CNBC, 12/17/2025
- Weekend events: Boat parade, Taste of the North, markets galore β Axios, 12/18/2025
- Donald Trump defends record on economy in combative White House address β Financial Times, 12/18/2025
- A Bellicose Trump Points Fingers in Defending His Record on the Economy β The New York Times, 12/18/2025
- Full Transcript of President Trumpβs Speech on the Economy β The New York Times, 12/18/2025
- Fact-Checking Trumpβs Prime-Time Address on the Economy β The New York Times, 12/18/2025
- Bank of England Cuts Rates to Near Three-Year Low β The Wall Street Journal, 12/18/2025
Market Futures
Social Media Buzz
For your reading pleasure, not to be treated as advice of any sort.
- Daily Discussion Thread for December 17, 2025 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-17
- What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, December 18, 2025 β reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets, 2025-12-17
- Top Portuguese fusion physicist shot dead at home in Boston | Portuguese physicist Nuno Loureiro, one of the worldβs leading experts in nuclear fusion and director of the MITβs Plasma Science and Fusion Centre, has died after being shot at his home in Brookline β reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-17
- Putin calls European leaders βlittle pigsβ and says Russia will achieve Ukraine goals by diplomacy or force – Europe live β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2025-12-17
- Gen Zers are defiantly βgiving upβ on ever owning a home and are spending more than saving, working less, and making risky investments, study shows β reddit.com/r/Economics, 2025-12-17
- Vilnius right now (protest against leading coalition attempt to take over public broadcaster LRT) β reddit.com/r/Europe, 2025-12-17
- Trump promised a blue-collar jobs boom. The opposite is happening β reddit.com/r/Economics, 2025-12-17
- Brazil has threatened to withdraw from the European-South American Mercosur free trade agreement if it is not signed this month. Italy and France continue to have reservations and warn against a timely conclusion. β reddit.com/r/europe, 2025-12-17